𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗚𝗹𝗼𝗯𝗮𝗹 𝗕𝗲𝗮𝘁 𝗯𝘆 𝗚𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗹𝗱 𝗟𝗮𝗰𝘂𝗮𝗿𝘁𝗮

The arrest of former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, facilitated by President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr., has turned the nation’s political landscape into a high-stakes chessboard as the May 2025 midterm elections loom.

With Duterte now in the custody of the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague, charged with crimes against humanity over his brutal “war on drugs,” the fallout is seismic. We are about to witness a dynastic showdown between the Marcos and Duterte clans, with Senate seats and Vice President Sara Duterte’s impeachment hanging in the balance. The question is not just who blinked first, but who can turn this gambit into electoral gold.

The Duterte Camp: Sympathy as a Weapon
Rodrigo Duterte’s arrest on March 11, 2025, has handed his camp an unexpected gift: a martyr’s halo. The former strongman’s supporters, particularly in his Mindanao stronghold and among overseas Filipino workers, see this as political persecution, a narrative the Duterte machine is already amplifying.

The image of a frail, 79-year-old ex-president being whisked away to face a foreign court stokes outrage among the masses who still revere him for his iron-fisted rule. Posts on social media and grassroots sentiment suggest the arrest has galvanized the Duterte base, framing it as a betrayal by Marcos, their erstwhile UniTeam ally from 2022.

This backlash gives the Duterte camp a potent advantage: emotional leverage. To capitalize on it, they will likely lean hard into the “victim” playbook. Expect PDP-Laban senatorial candidates, such as Bong Go, Robin Padilla, and Vic Rodriguez, to flood the airwaves and barangays with tales of a Marcos-led conspiracy, painting Duterte as a patriot sacrificed to Western meddling.

Sara Duterte, despite her own impeachment woes, could rally the faithful by positioning herself as the heir to her father’s legacy, vowing to fight for his vindication. A shrewd move would be to mobilize street protests, peaceful but loud, mirroring the sympathy wave that buoyed Joseph Estrada post-arrest in 2001. If they play this right, the Duterte slate could sweep enough of the 12 open Senate seats to disrupt Marcos’s grip on the upper chamber.

The real ace up their sleeve? Timing. With the campaign season in full swing since February, the arrest’s drama keeps them front and center. As I have stated in one of my social media posts: by delivering Rody to the ICC, BBM has given the Duterte camp a bigger stage and the international media’s attention to amplify their voice.

It would be easy for Duterte’s media team to go on a digital blitz, such as viral videos of Duterte’s fiery Hong Kong speech days before his arrest, remixed with Sara’s defiant calls for justice. If they can sustain this momentum, the Duterte camp might not just survive this blow. They could thrive, turning backlash into ballots.

The Marcos Camp: Power Through Precision
For Bongbong Marcos, Duterte’s arrest is a calculated flex, a signal that no one, not even a former president, is untouchable under his watch. By cooperating with Interpol to send Duterte to The Hague, Marcos has neutralized a looming threat: the elder Duterte’s unpredictable influence over the 2025 midterms and Sara’s 2028 presidential ambitions. The move bolsters Marcos’s image as a decisive leader, distancing himself from the bloody legacy of Duterte’s drug war while aligning with international norms, a pivot that plays well with urban voters and the middle class.

The advantage here is control. With Duterte sidelined, Marcos’s allies in the House, led by cousin Martin Romualdez, can press forward with Sara’s impeachment, already greenlit on February 5, 2025, with 215 votes. A Marcos-dominated Senate post-midterms could seal her fate, barring her from future office and crippling the Duterte dynasty’s resurgence.

The arrest also lets Marcos flex his patronage muscle: pork-barrel funds from the 2025 budget, signed amid protests in December, are already flowing to loyal districts, greasing the wheels for his senatorial slate. But the Marcos camp must tread carefully, since overreach could backfire.

The first mistake to avoid is gloating—“pagyayabang”. Any hint of triumphalism, perhaps a smug presser from Marcos or First Lady Liza Araneta-Marcos, risks alienating swing voters who still see Duterte as a folk hero.

Second, they cannot let the ICC process look like a Marcos-orchestrated hit job. The Senate probe led by Imee Marcos, Bongbong’s sister, into the arrest’s legality is a wild card. Marcos must ensure it does not spiral into a platform for Duterte sympathizers.

Finally, they must not neglect the optics of Sara’s trial. If it is perceived as a kangaroo court, the backlash could fuel a Duterte upset in May. Marcos’s best bet? Stay above the fray, push a “unity” narrative, and let his well-oiled machine, including Romualdez and Senate President Chiz Escudero, clinch those vital seats.

A Referendum on Loyalty
With these recent events and developments, the 2025 midterms are no longer just an election. They are a referendum on two dynasties and their competing visions. The Duterte camp’s edge lies in raw populism. They can ride the wave of sympathy if they harness it with discipline and flair.

The Marcos camp, meanwhile, holds the institutional high ground, with Congress, cash, and a cleaner image, but risks tripping over its own hubris. With Sara’s impeachment trial slated for June or July, those Senate seats will decide more than legislation. They will shape the Philippines’ political soul for years to come.

As the dust settles in Manila and The Hague, one thing is clear: this is not a legal battle anymore. It is a blood feud with ballots as bullets. Buckle up. The next move is anyone’s guess.