The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has raised its ENSO Alert and Warning System to El Niño Alert as climate models indicate a high probability of El Niño development in the coming months.
PAGASA said most climate models, supported by expert assessment, show a 79 percent chance that El Niño will emerge during the June–July–August (JJA) 2026 season and may persist until early 2027.
Although ENSO-neutral conditions currently prevail over the tropical Pacific, the agency noted that the forecast meets the threshold for an El Niño Alert, which is issued when there is at least a 70 percent likelihood of development within the next two to three months.
El Niño, a warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), is associated with warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and cooler-than-average conditions over the Philippine Sea.
PAGASA warned that the phenomenon increases the likelihood of drier-than-usual conditions across parts of the country, which may result in dry spells and droughts in some areas.
However, it added that above-normal rainfall may still occur in the western sections of the country during the Southwest Monsoon or Habagat season.
The weather bureau said it will continue to closely monitor the development of ENSO conditions and urged government agencies and the public to take precautionary measures against possible impacts.
For updates and inquiries, PAGASA advised the public to contact its Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section under the Climatology and Agrometeorology Division.
